Are most people without children “childless by circumstance”?
The Claim
Birthgap says…
“A 2010 meta-analysis by Professor Renska Keizer would suggest that 10% of women who are childless are childfree, having chosen not to become mothers, and 10% are childless for medical reasons including infertility. So that leaves a whopping 80% of women without children childless by circumstance.”
(Birthgap Part 1, 42:28)
“My hypothesis is that many of the women who do not have children actually wanted to have children. And it's unplanned childlessness.”
(Birthgap Part 3, 38:28)
The Reality
There is no evidence to support the alarmist statistics around childlessness being used by producer Stephen Shaw in the film. People have different reasons for not having children, and research suggests that many people who do not have children are voluntarily childless. Terms like "childless by circumstance" and "unplanned childlessness" do not capture the true reasons behind not having children, and blur the distinction between personal choice, the influence of pronatalist cultural norms, and complex factors that affect decisions about having children.
The claim is false.
The Research
None of Dr. Renska Keizer’s research supports the 80% statistic cited in the film. Not only does her 2010 research have no reference to the 80% statistic, it is not a meta-analysis. She did analyze 2006 data in the Netherlands, and found that among women who were childless at age 45, 55% were voluntarily childless (as defined by researchers as not wanting children), and 45% were childless for medical or other circumstances (Keizer et al., 2011).
A Pew Research Center survey in 2021 in the United States found that among childless women and men, 56% were voluntarily childless (as defined by researchers as not wanting children), while 19% were childless for medical reasons and 25% were childless due to other circumstances (Pew Research Center, 2021).
The National Survey of Family Growth, conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in 2006-2010 in the United States, found that among permanently childless women, 72% were voluntarily childless (as defined by researchers as women not expecting to have children in their lifetime but are physically able to), while 28% were childless due to medical or other circumstances (Martinez et al., 2012).
A Michigan State University study of Michigan adults in 2022 found that among permanently childless women, 74% were voluntarily childless or childfree (as defined by researchers as women not wanting biological or adopted children), while 15% were childless due to medical or other circumstances (Neal & Neal, 2023).